Finals week 3 - Preliminary final week

It's down to four and no more. North have replaced Sydney as the only side outside the top 4 to make preliminary final weekend and it's all eyes West, well, not at sunset, it'll hurt your eyes, but all the footy is in sunny Perth over the weekend. 24 today and 26 tomorrow sets up perfect conditions for finals football.


Fremantle v Hawthorn

Not often these two sides play in Perth, once last year and the time before that was way back in 2011. 5 of the last 6 between these two have gone Hawthorns way with most of them down in Tassie which has proven to be less than friendly to the Purple people. Certainly it wasn't any good for them earlier this year with a massive thumping by the Hawks.

How will this one play out, the leagues best offence ( Hawthorn, 110 points avg ) against the leagues best defence ( Fremantle, 70 points avg ). In a move set to help out big Sandilands the Dockers bring in ex-Crow Jon Griffin to tackle the McEvoy / Hale combination and give the Dockers an extra tall to work with up forward where the Hawks defence can be stretched. If you can get Gibson or Birchall 1 on 1 with a genuine big man it gives the Dockers a slight advantage. Mind you, all the Hawks defenders can go tall / small at any time.

Last week the Hawkers had their big game players stand up, Luke Hodge was simply outstanding early and if he got subbed out at half time he was still BOG for mine, Brian Lake mounted a strong argument for another 1 year deal as he controlled the back line early and then Mitchell and Lewis used their strong bodies to leave the Crows behind. It was telling, big game players playing big games. It will be up to the Dockers to stem the influence of these guys to give themselves a real shot.

Mundy, Fyfe, Suban, Barlow, Neale. The heat is on these blokes tonight. Without a strong defensive effort from these guys the Hawks will again dictate midfield terms and attack. attack, attack and give their forward line enough opportunities to score. When Richmond, Port and West Coast beat the Hawks recently it was by denying the Hawks the ball, keeping their uncontested marks down and moving it forward. Have Fremantle got the patience and foot skills to move the ball forward with efficiency and deny the Hawks the ball?

Key match ups will be :

Mundy v Hodge in the midfield, Mundy must be thinking "stop him" first and "go get it" second. They have to slow down Hodge.

Spurr v Breust in the F50 for Hawthorn. Breust broke his drought with a bag of 6 last week, he'll be keen to back that up with no Gunston in the side.

Lake v Pavlich in what might be the Pav's last game and certainly his last in Perth. If Lake can keep Pavlich close to goal and deny the Dockers a focal point at half forward it will dry up their already baron scoring opportunities.

For mine the Hawks have hit their straps at the right time and the Dockers don't have the scoring power to match it with the Hawks. Even with all the will in the world keeping Hawthorn under 85 points would be a massive effort and the Dockers won't be bagging 14+ goals tonight.

Hawthorn to go into next week looking for 3 in a row, by 33 points.



West Coast v North Melbourne

Haven't the North fans had a ride over the last two years? Back to back prelims despite being under rated by all and sundry, it's a solid effort and much credit must go to their recruiting department. In particular Higgins and Waite, they've added a new dimension. The Eagles haven't been out of Perth since their round 22 loss back on August 30 to Adelaide. That's as good as you can get as far as preparation goes, especially for the teasm who travel more miles than any other.

Two of the top 4 highest scoring teams this year and two teams that, despite slightly differing styles, have very similar numbers across the board. Goals, contested and uncontested possessions, marks, hitouts, clearances, total disposals, you can't split them on most of those stats. The Kangas tackle a little more, which is surprising, but then again the Eagles have a lot of the ball, can't tackle the opposition if you've got it now, can you?

One big difference is in their back half. The Roos average the second most rebound 50's in the game (913), they let you in, they are only behind the Gold Coast (922) for having to get it out quick. The Eagles are 18th here (737), the hard part is not only scoring against the Eagles it's simply getting through the web to get close enough to do so. Can the Roos bust through?

The Eagles sat back last week, enjoyed the week off and watched as the Kangaroos went to Sydney and beat the Swans in a pretty dour unattractive affair. Exactly the opposite of how the Eagles work, they light up the field with space to burn in the F50 as they push up, nail the opposition between the 50m arcs and turn and run as well as any side can. The Roos will need to be very smart with ball use through the centre of the ground and Dal Santo, Higgins, Harvey and Turner will need to be up the ground and on the move to give the North mids plenty of options across half forward. If you hold the ball up on or near the middle of the ground the Eagles will choke you up.

Key match ups will be :

Schofield/McGovern v Petrie/Waite the key big men for North forward of centre will need to be at their best tonight. The North mids will need to look up to see options on the move and these two guys will be the focal points. If they stand still, time and space will run out very quickly.

Jacobs v Shuey is my likely match up for Norths much improved run-with man. Ex-Port boy Ben Jacobs has claimed the scalps of Hannebery and Cotchin in the last fortnight and Eagles prime mover Luke Shuey can expect a shadow tomorrow night.

Wellingham v Higgins in the North front half. Not only does Higgins need to offer some offensive options he'll need to be on Wellingham who since leaving Collingwood has developed testicles and talent we thought he didn't posses at the Pies.

North fans will cry "nobody rates us" and laugh when people say "you got the soft side of the draw", well, they now rate you, the draw up until now was questionable but it doesn't get any tougher than this. A rested up Eagles, set to fly high and face the Hawks in the decider by 23 points.

Next week the big dance.

Hopefully both WA teams but don't think it will be.

Reckon Freo will beat Hawthorn though so that means......

I mean, Hawthorn lost to a crap team in Port twice. Won't make the grand final.

Paul wrote:Hopefully both WA teams but don't think it will be.

Reckon Freo will beat Hawthorn though so that means......

I mean, Hawthorn lost to a crap team in Port twice. Won't make the grand final.

That makes no sense. But thankyou anyway.

The post match Hawthorn reviews will be interesting
Im tipping this
If Hawks win they will continue to be acknowledged as one of the great teams in modern times
However the same Hawks if they lose will have the press saying they are too old too slow and the dynasty they have created is over or almost over

i actually watched the whole match & i thought although their skills & composure were down, Fremantle was murdered by the umpiring, almost to the point the VFL whoops AFL were making sure one of 'their' teams got in

Booney wrote:
Hawthorn to go into next week looking for 3 in a row, by 33 points.

A rested up Eagles, set to fly high and face the Hawks in the decider by 23 points.

Next week the big dance.

Hawks win by 27, West Coast by 25.

Easy money.