2012 Brownlow Medal Preview

2012 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREVIEW

Certainly one of the most open counts in years, the 2012 Medal could be one of those years where people name 7-8 chances and still miss the winner. For those that love the count, he is my preview of how I feel the night will pan out.

Gary Ablett Jnr heads the markets at $4.00 currently, and while he would need to make history by being the first player to win the Medal from a team that only won two matches, there is little doubt that his numbers stack right up. Amassing 40 or more possessions in an incredible seven times, some of those games will be nearly impossible to ignore. Quite whether the umpires will give him enough three-vote games in some big losses remains to be seen, but I have him on 28 votes, as follows:

Ablett: Rnd 1: 2
Rnd 2: 1
Rnd 3: 3
Rnd 7: 1
Rnd 8: 2
Rnd 10: 3
Rnd 12: 3
Rnd 15: 2
Rnd 16: 2
Rnd 17: 3
Rnd 18: 2
Rnd 20: 1
Rnd 21: 2
Rnd 22: 1

TOTAL: 28 votes

Last year’s winner, Dane Swan is surprisingly long in the markets – as much as $14 as at today – but his numbers are considerably bigger than last season. Averaging 35 disposals over the 18 matches he played, he hit 40 or more touches on six occasions, and finished off in front of goal more this year. The slight knock on him is that he will lose votes to two teammates (more on that shortly), and will have to defy history in missing four matches, but his form is undoubted. My tally has him winning the Medal on 30 votes:

Swan:

Rnd 2: 1
Rnd 4: 3
Rnd 5: 3
Rnd 6: 1
Rnd 7: 3
Rnd 11: 3
Rnd 13: 3
Rnd 14: 3
Rnd 16: 1
Rnd 17: 3
Rnd 18: 3
Rnd 23: 3

TOTAL: 30 votes

His teammate, Dayne Beams , however, is the genuine smoky of the count. Averaging 31 disposals per game this season, some of his numbers are massive, and his ability to also kick goals – booting 29 through the midfield – while winning contested footy looks a real type to catch the umpires eyes. His polling history is the negative factor – only eight votes previously – but in his favour is a number of games where either Swan or Scott Pendlebury are missing, so less competition for votes. One key game will be the Round 17 loss to Hawthorn. He had 34 disposals that day and kicked four goals. I didn’t award him any votes for that, but many media outlets had him either best afield or second best, despite the margin. If he picks up votes there, and some others along the way, the $21 on offer for him may be luxury. My tally has him on 26 votes:

Rnd 5: 1
Rnd 6: 2
Rnd 7: 2
Rnd 9: 3
Rnd 10: 1
Rnd 11: 2
Rnd 13: 2
Rnd 16: 2
Rnd 18: 1
Rnd 19: 2
Rnd 20: 3
Rnd 21: 3
Rnd 23: 2

TOTAL: 26 votes

Jobe Watson is certainly a sentimental favorite, and it would be difficult to find many who would knock him taking home “Charlie”. Had some big games when Essendon were up and flying, but his problem will be over the closing few weeks when the Bombers fell in a big hole, harming his chances of votes. Whether the umpires still notice his massive workrate in some of those games may tell the tale for the inspirational skipper. I have him finishing slightly short, on 27 votes, however.

Rnd 1: 1
Rnd 2: 3
Rnd 4: 2
Rnd 6: 3
Rnd 7: 2
Rnd 8: 2
Rnd 10: 3
Rnd 11: 2
Rnd 13: 1
Rnd 14: 2
Rnd 16: 2
Rnd 18: 1
Rnd 19: 2
Rnd 20: 1

TOTAL: 27 votes


Scott Thompson has been near the top of discussion all season and there is no doubt the Adelaide midfielder catches the eye. Hitting 30 or more disposals 12 times in 2012, it will remain to be seen if his penchant for chatting to umpires and being on the wrong end of the free kick count will harm his chances. Wins plenty of the contested footy, but may find the competition for votes with Patrick Dangerfield is a hindrance. 26 votes looks how he will finish to me.

Rnd 1: 3
Rnd 2: 2
Rnd 4: 1
Rnd 5: 1
Rnd 6: 2
Rnd 7: 3
Rnd 8: 1
Rnd 12: 3
Rnd 14: 3
Rnd 16: 2
Rnd 18: 1
Rnd 22: 2
Rnd 23: 2

TOTAL: 26 votes


Patrick Dangerfield’s barnstorming season has been well documented, taking his game to previously unseen levels. Averaging 27 touches per game, some of his matches were simply so dominant that it’s nearly impossible to see him missing the three votes on these occasions. This may also be his Achilles Heel – sometimes its either chocolates or boiled lollies for the burgeoning superstar. I have him recording seven Best On Grounds in a total tally of 25 votes. It leaves little margin for error from the men in white, and relies on some other votes along the way. Will storm home, but looks to finish a little short.


Rnd 5: 3
Rnd 6: 1
Rnd 8: 3
Rnd 10: 2
Rnd 16: 1
Rnd 17: 3
Rnd 19: 3
Rnd 20: 3
Rnd 21: 3
Rnd 23: 3

TOTAL: 25 votes

Trent Cotchin will start the second favorite by the looks, and this seems a little mystifying on face value. Richmond missed the finals, and the seasons of Ivan Maric and Brett Deledio look set to steal votes from the brilliant Cotchin. That said, few catch the eye like him in full flight and a relatively high free kick tally indicates he is well and truly noticed by those who cast the votes. It’s a little hard to line him up, but while he looks set to poll fairly well, looks to fall short by my tally:

Rnd 3: 1
Rnd 8: 2
Rnd 11: 1
Rnd 14: 1
Rnd 15: 2
Rnd 16: 2
Rnd 17: 2
Rnd 18: 3
Rnd 20: 3
Rnd 21: 3
Rnd 22: 1
Rnd 23: 3

TOTAL: 24 votes

Joel Selwood looks to tick every box for a potential Medallist. High visibility, both in game style; the captain, and in a team that performed reasonably. Tends not to have a high number of BOG efforts, but polls frequently. That may be a decisive factor in a season where his team was not at their dominant best, so could feature in a number of minor votes. Has not polled less than 16 votes in his last four seasons so in racing parlance, has always been thereabouts at the distance, but finds a couple better in the run to the line. Much as I have him this season, with a projected tally of 22 votes

Rnd 1: 3
Rnd 2: 1
Rnd 3: 1
Rnd 4: 2
Rnd 8: 2
Rnd 13: 1
Rnd 14: 2
Rnd 15: 1
Rnd 18: 2
Rnd 19: 3
Rnd 23: 3

TOTAL: 22 votes


Sam Mitchell has been the medium of a strong betting plunge in the last week, firming from double figures to a quote of $9 as at Friday September 21. Would need to make his own slice of history, with Shane Woewodin in 2000 being the only other Brownlow Medallist to fail to make the All Australian team, but this may say more about the strength of the midfield in the AFL, than any perception about Mitchell’s own season. Hawthorn will have a number of games where they take four, five or all six votes on offer and past history shows that Mitchell is high in the umpire’s thinking many times. Suspect he will fall short here, though.

Rnd 2: 3
Rnd 7: 2
Rnd 8: 1
Rnd 10: 2
Rnd 12: 2
Rnd 14: 1
Rnd 16: 3
Rnd 17: 2
Rnd 18: 3
Rnd 19: 2

TOTAL: 20 votes


VOTE LEADERS PER CLUB:

Adelaide: Scott Thompson
Brisbane: Jack Redden
Carlton: Marc Murphy
Collingwood: Dane Swan
Essendon: Jobe Watson
Fremantle: Matthew Pavlich
Geelong: Joel Selwood
Gold Coast: Gary Ablett Jnr
Greater Western Sydney: Jonathan Giles
Hawthorn: Sam Mitchell
Melbourne: Nathan Jones
North Melbourne: Andrew Swallow
Port Adelaide: Hamish Hartlett
Richmond: Trent Cotchin
St Kilda: Lenny Hayes
Sydney: Josh Kennedy
West Coast: Scott Selwood
Western Bulldogs: Matthew Boyd


CK’s TOP FIVE:

1. Dane Swan (Collingwood)
2. Gary Ablett Jnr (Gold Coast)
3. Jobe Watson (Essendon)
4. Dayne Beams (Collingwood)
Scott Thompson (Adelaide)


Best Outsider: Josh Kennedy (Sydney)

Great write ups CK. I think you're on the money with all of your predictions (even though I would love to see an Adelaide player get up!)

Looks like Swan and Beams, and Thompson and Dangerfield could cost each other the medal by taking votes of each other.

Ablett doesn't have that issue, and in an open year like this, could be the reason why he finishes up as the Brownlow winner. He would be a worthy nonetheless.

Brucetiki wrote:Looks like Swan and Beams, and Thompson and Dangerfield could cost each other the medal by taking votes of each other.

Ablett doesn't have that issue, and in an open year like this, could be the reason why he finishes up as the Brownlow winner. He would be a worthy nonetheless.

The only disclaimer I'd place on this, is that Swan polled 34 votes last year in winning, but Pendlebury still picked up 24 along the way, so its possible for two players to poll very highly in the one team. It's a fair assessment, however.

The thing about the Adelaide players is that, for such a dominant team, I'd think only three players will really poll well as individuals - the two above plus Rory Sloane, and in a team where they will have a number of 4-6 vote games as a team, that may allow Dangerfield and Thompson to still poll heavily.

Great write up CK - I wouldn't normally 'back' someone to win the Brownlow, but given all your insight I might have to look into it..lol.



Only one bad thing about AFL Finals, Brownlow etc, etc - means the season is coming to an end

After Round Four -
Ablett (9); Jobe Watson (; Scott Thompson (7); Stanton, Kennedy, Shuey, Judd, Bartel* (6)

After Round Five -
G.Ablett (9)
J.Kennedy (9)
J.Watson (
S.Thompson (7)

After Round Six -
J.Watson 11
G.Ablett 9
J. Kennedy 9
S.Thompson 7
S.Pendlebury 7
S.Selwood 7

After Round Seven
J.Watson 13
B.Stanton 11
S.Thompson 10
G.Ablett 9
J.Kennedy 9
R.Griffen 9

After Round 8
J.Watson 14
B.Stanton 13
S.Thompson 12
S.Pendlebury 11
G.Ablett 9
JP.Kennedy 9
R.Griffen 9
L.Hayes 9

After Round 9
J.Watson 17
B.Stanton 14
S.Pendlebury 12
S.Thompson 12
L.Hayes 11

After Round 10
J.Watson 19
B.Stanton 14
S.Pendlebury 12
S.Thompson 12
G.Ablett 12
L.Hayes 11

Round 11
J.Watson 20
B.Stanton 14
S.Pendlebury 12
S.Thompson 12
G.Ablett 12

After Round 12
J.Watson 20
S.Thompson 15
G.Ablett 15
B.Stanton 14
S.Pendlebury 12

After Round 13
J.Watson 23
S.Thompson 15
G.Ablett 15
B.Stanton 14
S.Pendlebury 12

After Round 14
J.Watson 26
S.Thompson 18
G.Ablett 15
D.Swan 15
B.Stanton 14
L.Hayes 13

After Round 15
J.Watson 26
S.Thompson 19
G.Ablett 16
D.Swan 15
B.Stanton 14
L.Hayes 13

After Round 16
J.Watson 26
S.Thompson 21
G.Ablett 18
L.Hayes 16
D.Swan 15
S.Mitchell 15
T.Cotchin 14
S.Pendlebury 14

After Round 17
J.Watson 26
S.Thompson 21
G.Ablett 21
S.Mitchell 18
D. Swan 17
L.Hayes 16
T.Cotchin 15

After Round 18
J.Watson 26
G.Ablett 22
S.Thompson 21
S.Mitchell 20
D.Swan 20
L.Hayes 18

After Round 19
J.Watson 29
G.Ablett 23
D.Swan 22
S.Thompson 21
S.Mitchell 20
L.Hayes 19

After Round 20
J.Watson 30
G.Ablett 23
S.Mitchell 23
D.Swan 22
S.Thompson 21
L.Hayes 19;
P.Dangerfield 18
T.Cotchin 18

THanks for the updates, B&T.