R11 - Port v Geelong & Adelaide BYE

Pushed for time this week, but thought I'd better get a thread up!

Friday night shaping up to be a quality game, post away.....

Me too. I'll be back with more later...

FNF, for the second week in a row, doesn’t involve the MCG, Etihad or the hapless Carlton side. HOORAY!!

The first of the poorly managed split rounds starts with Port hosting the Catters in Adelaide. “The Big Stage” they call it, the country is watching, they say. So what can we expect from 9th Vs 10th on the ladder who both sit 5-5. Some Cats fans are throwing in the towel already, “Take the 38+ on Ports at the TAB” one has told me. When Geelong are a good thing to lose by 38 points plus I’ll get back to him, for now, nobody should use their own money to back against the Cats. As such I’ll be raiding the wife’s purse tonight looking for a lazy $20 to back Ports with. Not by 38+, mind you.
Port hit some form beating Melbourne by 60 points in the Alice then took on a Bulldogs side that looked to be digging themselves out of a form slump, beating them by 40 points. While Port yet to look like they are back to their best, they certainly have some more run and carry about them and the forwards are getting plenty of ball. On the flip side Geelong thumped the miserable Bombers last week, keeping the Dons goal less for the first half. I don’t care how tired a side is, keeping a team off the score board for an hour is a mighty effort.

Port have welcomed back young gun Ollie Wines ( Ollie Ollie Ollie Oi! Oi! Oi! ) in the last two weeks. While he gets some attention in the media, I’m not sure a kid with 55 games under his belt has made an impression like Ollie has on a side for a long, long time. He is a contested ball beast, physically he’s a 150 game / 6 year player and his leadership has been recognised at the club by being elevated to the leadership group this year. He’s a critical piece of Ports puzzle.....speaking of puzzle, Mark Blicavs. I don’t mean how to spell his name (I did have to Google it) I mean how one of the angry Scott’s is using him. He’s been given run with roles in the midfield of late, he easily runs with the best, he’ll out mark most of them and doesn’t mind getting his knee’s dirty. I expect him to go to Boak or Ebert and make two of Port’s key engine room work back the other way against him. He might also need to take on Lobbe as the third man up from time to time.

So the numbers, Port get more of the ball, tackle more and get more hit outs. There’s the stat Geelong have suffered with this year, they’re last for hit outs. With just 32 per game ( Port get 47 and the Dockers are top with 56 ) they rely on their midfield to read the opposition ruck taps and go from there. It’s not working. Port rank 4th in clearances, the Cats 18th. With Lobbe is reasonable form and the potential ( although this is written Wednesday night and I doubt he’ll play ) inclusion of Paddy Ryder the Cats are unlikely to get off the bottom of that statistical ladder.

Form, numbers and “gut feel” all point to a Port win here. I think the home side, by 39 points. ;-)

Port but just.