Little ol' Round 11

FNF, for the second week in a row, doesn’t involve the MCG, Etihad or the hapless Carlton side. HOORAY!!

The first of the poorly managed split rounds starts with Port hosting the Catters in Adelaide. “The Big Stage” they call it, the country is watching, they say. So what can we expect from 9th Vs 10th on the ladder who both sit 5-5. Some Cats fans are throwing in the towel already, “Take the 38+ on Ports at the TAB” one has told me. When Geelong are a good thing to lose by 38 points plus I’ll get back to him, for now, nobody should use their own money to back against the Cats. As such I’ll be raiding the wife’s purse tonight looking for a lazy $20 to back Ports with. Not by 38+, mind you.
Port hit some form beating Melbourne by 60 points in the Alice then took on a Bulldogs side that looked to be digging themselves out of a form slump, beating them by 40 points. While Port yet to look like they are back to their best, they certainly have some more run and carry about them and the forwards are getting plenty of ball. On the flip side Geelong thumped the miserable Bombers last week, keeping the Dons goal less for the first half. I don’t care how tired a side is, keeping a team off the score board for an hour is a mighty effort.

Port have welcomed back young gun Ollie Wines ( Ollie Ollie Ollie Oi! Oi! Oi! ) in the last two weeks. While he gets some attention in the media, I’m not sure a kid with 55 games under his belt has made an impression like Ollie has on a side for a long, long time. He is a contested ball beast, physically he’s a 150 game / 6 year player and his leadership has been recognised at the club by being elevated to the leadership group this year. He’s a critical piece of Ports puzzle.....speaking of puzzle, Mark Blicavs. I don’t mean how to spell his name (I did have to Google it) I mean how one of the angry Scott’s is using him. He’s been given run with roles in the midfield of late, he easily runs with the best, he’ll out mark most of them and doesn’t mind getting his knee’s dirty. I expect him to go to Boak or Ebert and make two of Port’s key engine room work back the other way against him. He might also need to take on Lobbe as the third man up from time to time.

So the numbers, Port get more of the ball, tackle more and get more hit outs. There’s the stat Geelong have suffered with this year, they’re last for hit outs. With just 32 per game ( Port get 47 and the Dockers are top with 56 ) they rely on their midfield to read the opposition ruck taps and go from there. It’s not working. Port rank 4th in clearances, the Cats 18th. With Lobbe is reasonable form and the potential ( although this is written Wednesday night and I doubt he’ll play ) inclusion of Paddy Ryder the Cats are unlikely to get off the bottom of that statistical ladder.

Form, numbers and “gut feel” all point to a Port win here. I think the home side, by 39 points. ;-)


Ouch. Might be ugly, this one. The Suns host the Dockers....and, ouch. Copping Fremantle the week after they had their pants pulled down in front of their home fans won’t be an easy task, especially for a Gold coast side that is missing almost its entire first 18. You could mount a case that the Suns are without up to 15 first choice players, now I don’t think even the Hawks or Swans could cover that many key personnel going down, let alone a start up club that has had questionable depth since their inception. You can’t really think this will be anything but a horrid night for the Gold Coast fans, each and every one of the 912 that show up deserve a medal, or at least a drink voucher to Jupiters. Ok, two drinks. Scrap that, nobody at the Suns needs to be given more to drink.
The Gold Coast simply can’t score at the moment,5,6 and 9 goals in the last three weeks. That’s not a good form line to take in against the Dockers who will be hell bent on a bigger defensive effort after the Tigers kicked 7 in a quarter against them last week. Ross will have the boys primed for a shut out defensively and to attack more than they did, attack, the best form of defence is Ross’ motto. Not really, but it worked well in this paragraph.

The Dockers will win and win big, by 82 points.


Ouch. Might be ugly, this one. The Eagles head home after dropping a close one in the wind down in Taswegia while the Bombers, goal less for a half, at least get the opportunity to head out of Melbourne for a few days to avoid some of the heat being piled upon them. Although, if they take good guy / team mate of the year Brendan Goddard with them they can expect a bake at any given moment. There’s leaders in clubs who command respect, then there’s rats who jumped off as sinking ship for money who need to know when to shut up and when to put up.
The Eagles would be filthy for dropping that one on to the Roos, scoring into the wind was almost impossible and bleeding 4 goals while kicking with the gale while continually bombing it into the F50 and only kicking 3 themselves in the last quarter pretty much cost the Eagles the 4 points and second spot on the ladder.
The numbers are pretty even, the Bombers get lots of the ball but they do nothing with it, they just fart **** around with it across half back giving their fairly capable forward half no chance to get into a one-on-one and take a grab. The biggest issue for them in this one, the Eagles average 6 goals more a game than the Bombers. It will be at least that many between the sides at the final siren.

Essendon, after being thoroughly checked by security at the airport, will get done. Easily. The Eagles by 70 points.



North greet the Swans under the roof after both sides had wins last weekend. The Roos fought out a good win in Tassie, many question the resilience of this side and they showed last week they have some. No sterner test of your patience and willingness to fight for the ball than a match up with the Swans. Sydney have snuck up on the comp, just taking care of business to sit 8-2 and clear in second spot. They’re so business like they seem to go pretty much unnoticed, they keep doing what we expect of a side stacked with $o much talent.
McVeigh, Hannebery, Kennedy, Mitchell, Parker are all jets, Rampe is creating run and drive from half back and blokes like Jetta and Lloyd have taken their games up to a new level winning more of the ball. All of them use it well. Big Myke Pyke celebrated his 100th last week, good effort by the big tree lopper, he was kept over Mumford a couple of years ago and he’s been an integral part of the dominant Sydney side of late. With all these blokes winning plenty of ball the forward half who spend all week laughing all the way to the bank spend all weekend laughing all the way to the goals. How Tippett doesn’t bag out more I don’t know, but it doesn’t matter, his side is sitting second and he’s making squillions at the same time. Lucky bastard.
So, can the Kangas fans bank on another solid 4 quarter effort from their side? If you are one, you’d like to think so, but if you’re not ( or you are a realistic Kangas fan ) you expect they’ll not be good enough to roll the Swans. Funnier things have happened and for mine, in this short week this one is the best “long shot” to take.

Can’t see the Roos doing enough to beat the Swans, tight one, but the Swans by 27 points. They’ll just T.C.O.B.



4th and 5th face off this week and the whole competition is keen to see what the Pies can do against a side who isn’t looking for early draft picks, for once, the Giants. The GWS boys have come on in leaps and bounds in 2015, no thanks to the likes of experienced heads in Mumford, Ward, Shaw, Griffen, Patfull and Davis. Very good target recruiting by the Giants over the last 3 years has complimented the 30 odd first round draft picks they have on their list, better news for them is they seem to be keeping more than they are losing. Only a matter of time though before player agents get in the ears of the kids and one or more move on for more money. My advice, stay put, these lads are on the move and on the move quick.
The Pies have had the quality of their opposition questioned, Melbourne last week is ok to ask about but the weeks prior in beating the Roos and the Cats isn’t an easy task. What the Pies have done is beat the sides around them on the ladder making their spot in the 4 earnt, not granted. They keep hitting the score board and build the ever so important score board pressure. 17,17 and 20 in the last 3 wins and 15 in the last loss a month back to the Tiggers. That’s consistent goal scoring ability and it’s why they keep winning. The big blokes in Cloke and White give them a target and the little blokes around them are reading, sharking and scoring from the crumbs they collect.
GWS get more of the ball, get more hit outs but the Pies do more 1%’ers and tackles. Match of the round this one and I’m basing my pick on Collingwood having a better score for column and a better scores against column on the ladder. Gut feel says maybe the Giants, form and numbers tell me the Pies to frank some recent form and win by 16 points.



Last and most definitely least the Saints and Demons do battle late on Sunday afternoon. Been an interesting week for the Demons, Paul Roos has shown he’s feeling a bit of heat, so he should, they’ve been rubbish for a couple of weeks after giving the fans something to hang their hats on with a win over the more fancied Bulldogs three weeks back. Meanwhile, I’m the first to admit the Saints have surprised me a little, while they still really struggle against the top line sides they are looking in better shape than the bottom 4 entrenched below them. Melbourne do however have a couple of ripping kids and I think most will agree young Angus Brayshaw leads the way with promise. He’s a hard nut, loves the tackling part of the game and does his best work in close. The Demons seem to have finally used a top draft pick to great effect!
I’m still laughing at the big Demons ruckman and his paddle ball attempt from last weekend....excellent.

In all the key statistical areas both these sides sit exactly where their ladder position is, in the bottom 5 for almost everything that wins games. As such, I’m not going to dwell on this one for too long.

The Demons are really paddling, the Saints show some pluck at least and they’ll be thrilling the huge crowd at the Dome in Sunday twilight footy. St’s by 32 points.

TTFWIW - 7 last week.

Port
Freo
West Coast
Sydney
Collingwood
Saints

All the same except Melbourne